What is NUPL?
NUPL stands for Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. It is calculated by taking the difference between Bitcoin's Market Cap and its Realized Cap, then dividing by the Market Cap. The result is a number between -1 and 1 that tells you what fraction of the total market is sitting on unrealized profit or loss.
A NUPL reading above 0.75 means the market is in euphoria — historically every prior reading above 0.75 preceded a major top. A reading below 0 means the market is in net loss — historically the rarest and most opportunity-rich zone. The BTC NHCI Score tracks NUPL continuously as one of its 13 indicators. Current NUPL: —.
What NUPL has signalled historically
In every Bitcoin cycle since 2012, NUPL crossing above 0.75 (euphoria territory) has preceded a major correction within weeks to months. In November 2021, NUPL reached 0.74 just before Bitcoin dropped 75%. In December 2018, NUPL turned negative — meaning the market was in net loss — marking the absolute cycle bottom. Each cycle has shown this pattern with remarkable consistency.
The current NUPL reading of — places the market in the Accumulation zone of the NHCI framework — above the panic floor, but well below historical distribution territory.
The 5 NUPL zones you need to know
Market in net loss. Every prior instance has marked a cycle bottom. Historically the rarest and most opportunity-rich zone.
Moderate profitability. Market recovering confidence. Smart money historically builds positions here.
◂ Current zoneRising unrealized profits. Momentum confirmed. Risk increasing as market becomes overextended.
Extreme unrealized profits. Every prior instance above 0.75 preceded a major top and correction.
The current NUPL reading (—) places the market in the Hope/Accumulation zone — above net loss territory, well below euphoria. The BTC NHCI Score combines NUPL with 12 other indicators for a complete cycle reading.
See how NUPL fits the live BTC NHCI Score →How NUPL fits into the NHCI Score
The BTC NHCI Score uses NUPL as one of its primary on-chain anchors. It carries significant weight in the model because of its historical accuracy across all 4 complete cycles since 2012. NUPL complements MVRV by measuring aggregate sentiment rather than just the market-to-realized ratio.
However, NUPL alone is not enough. It can remain elevated for extended periods during strong bull markets, giving premature signals. The NHCI combines NUPL with 12 other indicators — including MVRV, aSOPR, Exchange Flow, and macro signals — to produce a more robust reading. The current BTC NHCI Score (v3.1) reflects all 13 inputs simultaneously.
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Key takeaways
- NUPL = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) / Market Cap
- Below 0: market in net loss — historically a cycle floor
- Above 0.75: euphoria — historically precedes major tops
- Current NUPL: — (Hope/Accumulation zone)
- The BTC NHCI Score uses NUPL as one of its 13 primary indicators