One score tells you exactly where the crypto market is in the cycle — whether it's time to buy, hold, or protect your gains. No charts to read. No influencers to follow. Just data.
This indicator analyses the state of the Bitcoin macro cycle through 9 on-chain, macroeconomic and sentiment indicators. Designed for long-term educational context.
Time in this phase
In COLD MARKET zone since— weeks
Progression within zone 20–4032/40 · 60%
Historical data: In previous cycles, this zone lasted between 16 and 28 weeks. Current cycle: updated live. Future duration is unknown. No timing guarantee.
20152018–1920202022–23
In the 4 previous cycles where the NHCI entered this zone, BTC recorded highly variable historical returns: from the worst case (−85%) to the 2015–2017 cycle (+9,800%). Returns vary significantly by cycle.
Past performance does not predict the future. Crypto-assets may lose all their value.
Indicadores live · —
BTC PRICE?
Current Bitcoin price in USD, fetched in real time.
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FEAR & GREED?
Fear & Greed index 0–100. Low values = extreme fear. Historical data, not an action signal.
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BTC DOM.?
Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market cap. High dominance = preference for BTC.
Annual growth of global M2 money supply. Historically correlated with risk assets.
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aSOPR?
Indicates whether BTC movers are realising gains or losses. Below 1 = historical capitulation.
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MINER FLOW?
Net BTC flow from miners. Positive = miners accumulating. Negative = miners selling.
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M2 3M?
Global M2 money supply 3-month change. Expanding = more liquidity. Historical correlation with BTC cycles.
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FED BALANCE?
Federal Reserve balance sheet. Higher = QE mode, more liquidity. Lower = QT mode, tightening.
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The algorithm analysed 13 market indicators and detected a confluence historically associated with cold market and accumulation phases in previous Bitcoin cycles. Historical pattern — not a prediction of the future. NeverHodl is not a financial advisory service.
BTC NHCI v3.1 · 3392 days calibrated
Educational data only. Not financial advice or investment recommendation. Crypto-assets are high-risk assets and may lose all their value. Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Investment decisions are always the sole responsibility of the user. DYOR.
For Retail Investors
Built for people who don't trade for a living.
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The Informed Investor
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NeverHodl translates market noise into one clear phase reading. You stop reacting to headlines and start following data.
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The Busy Professional
"I have capital to invest but can't watch charts all day."
We are deeply pro-crypto. We are against eternal HODL.
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We believe in crypto
Bitcoin is the most important monetary invention in decades. We are long-term believers — not tourists. That's exactly why we take cycle management seriously.
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We reject eternal HODL
"HODL forever" is not a strategy. It has caused millions of retail investors to watch life-changing gains evaporate.
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We follow the data
The market is cyclical since 2009. Every cycle has a phase for buying, holding, and protecting gains. The data shows which phase you're in.
"Accumulate when others panic. Protect gains when others are euphoric. Repeat."
This is not prediction. This is reading what the data already tells you.
The Process
From 13 indicators to one clear reading.
01
📡
Data collection
13 live indicators aggregated from BGeometrics, FRED, Alternative.me, Kraken and Yahoo Finance. Updated every 24h.
02
⚡
Layer processing
Each signal is weighted within its layer. Layers are combined with cycle-adjusted weights.
03
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Phase mapping
The 0–100 score maps to 1 of 5 phases. Confidence based on layer alignment.
04
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Weekly signal
Every Monday, subscribers receive the BTC NHCI reading + context + recommended action. One signal. No noise.
Data Layers
4 layers. 13 indicators. One reading.
Each layer captures a different dimension of the market. When they all converge, confidence is highest.
😨
SENTIMENT
Market Mood
What is the Fear & Greed Index?Measures crypto market sentiment on a scale of 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). Historically, very low values have coincided with accumulation opportunities and very high values with distribution zones. It is a sentiment indicator. It does not predict prices.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Fear & Greed Index
8/100
Market Sentiment · live
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SENTIMENT
Trader Positioning
What are Funding Rates?" data-es="En los mercados de futuros perpetuos, el "funding rate" es un pago periódico entre compradores (longs) y vendedores (shorts). Cuando es negativo, los shorts pagan a los longs — señal de que el mercado está muy inclinado hacia las posiciones bajistas. Históricamente, un posicionamiento corto saturado ha precedido movimientos al alza rápidos ("squeezes"). No es una garantía." data-pt="Nos mercados de futuros perpétuos, o funding rate é um pagamento periódico entre compradores (longs) e vendedores (shorts). Quando negativo, os shorts pagam aos longs. Historicamente, posicionamento curto saturado precedeu movimentos rápidos de alta ("squeezes"). Não é uma garantia.">En los mercados de futuros perpetuos, el "funding rate" es un pago periódico entre compradores (longs) y vendedores (shorts). Cuando es negativo, los shorts pagan a los longs — señal de que el mercado está muy inclinado hacia las posiciones bajistas. Históricamente, un posicionamiento corto saturado ha precedido movimientos al alza rápidos ("squeezes"). No es una garantía.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is Open Interest?Total value of outstanding derivative contracts in Bitcoin markets. Low Open Interest after a drawdown signals a clean slate for the next move. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Open Interest (BTC perps)
—
Low leverage. Low OI historically means less risk of cascading liquidations.
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SENTIMENT
Street Conversation
What is the Social Volume Index?Measures the volume of conversations about Bitcoin and crypto on social networks. Low volume indicates the topic is off the general public's radar. Historically, conversation lows have coincided with silent accumulation phases. Does not predict prices.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Social Volume Index
Low
Conversation volume at 18-month lows. Low retail engagement is historically a lagging accumulation signal.
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ON-CHAIN
Is Bitcoin Overvalued?
What is the MVRV Ratio?Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour." data-es="Compara el precio actual de Bitcoin con el precio al que cada moneda se movió por última vez (su "precio de coste" histórico). Un Ratio bajo o negativo indica que el mercado está cerca de ese coste promedio. Históricamente, esto ha coincidido con zonas de fondo. Por encima de 7 ha coincidido con techos. Es un patrón histórico observable, no una garantía de comportamiento futuro." data-pt="Compara o preço actual do Bitcoin com o preço em que cada moeda foi movida pela última vez. Um Ratio baixo ou negativo indica que o mercado está perto desse custo médio histórico. Historicamente coincidiu com zonas de fundo. Padrão histórico — não uma garantia de comportamento futuro.">Compares the current Bitcoin price with the price at which each coin was last moved (its historical ⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
MVRV Ratio
1.2
No speculative premium. Market near realized cost basis. Historically a healthy accumulation zone.
💎
ON-CHAIN
Are Holders Losing Money?
What is aSOPR?Measures whether people moving Bitcoin are selling at a profit (>1) or at a loss (<1). Below 1.0 means most sellers are at a loss — this is called capitulation. In all previous cycles analysed, this zone preceded recoveries. This does not guarantee it will happen again.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
aSOPR (on-chain)
0.97
Holders selling near breakeven. Minimal selling pressure — a historically neutral zone.
📉
ON-CHAIN
Profit/Loss of All Holders
What is NUPL?Net Unrealized Profit/Loss measures what percentage of Bitcoin's market cap represents unrealized profit or loss. Values below 0 mean the average holder is in loss — historically a strong accumulation signal. Above 0.75 has marked cycle tops. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
NUPL (on-chain)
—
Holders near breakeven. Market in transition — not euphoria, not capitulation.
🏦
ON-CHAIN
Supply Available to Sell
What does BTC on Exchanges measure?Counts how many Bitcoin are deposited in exchanges available to sell. When at historical lows, fewer holders are willing to sell at current prices. Historically this supply reduction has coincided with accumulation periods. Does not guarantee a price increase.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
BTC on Exchanges
2.21M
BTC leaving exchanges — holders moving to self-custody. Historically a bullish structural signal.
⛏️
ON-CHAIN
Miner Selling Pressure
What is Miner Flow?Tracks Bitcoin flowing from miner wallets to exchanges. Low miner flow historically coincides with miners holding rather than selling, reducing available supply. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Miner Flow (on-chain)
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Miners accumulating. Not selling to exchanges — historically a bullish structural signal.
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MACRO
Money Printing Machine
What is M2 Global YoY?Measures how much the total money supply in major world economies grew (or shrank). When it grows fast, historically more liquidity has flowed into risk assets. The historical lag between M2 expansion and crypto market moves has been 60-90 days. Does not guarantee future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
M2 Global YoY
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Global M2 expanding. Historically correlated with risk asset cycles including Bitcoin.
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MACRO
Money Supply Momentum
What is M2 Global 3M?Measures the 3-month rate of change of global money supply. A faster and more reactive signal than YoY. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
M2 Global 3M
—
Liquidity accelerating short term. 3-month M2 change showing expansion trend.
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MACRO
Global Fear Level
What is VIX?It's the implied volatility index of S&P 500 options. Above 25 indicates stress in traditional markets, which historically has compressed Bitcoin short-term. Below 18 indicates general calm. It is a macro context indicator. It does not directly measure Bitcoin's risk.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
VIX Index (CBOE)
27.6
VIX calm. Traditional markets stable — neutral macro environment for crypto.
👑
MACRO
Is It Bitcoin Season?
What is Bitcoin Dominance?Historical observable pattern. Does not guarantee this will happen." data-es="Mide qué porcentaje del total del mercado crypto corresponde a Bitcoin. Por encima del 55%, el capital del mercado está concentrado en BTC y las altcoins no han capturado rotación aún. Históricamente, cuando baja del 52%, ha coincidido con el inicio del "alt season". Es un patrón histórico observable. No garantiza que ocurrirá así." data-pt="Mede que percentagem do total do mercado crypto corresponde ao Bitcoin. Historicamente, quando desce abaixo de 52%, coincidiu com o início do "alt season". Padrão histórico observável. Não garante que assim ocorrerá.">Mide qué porcentaje del total del mercado crypto corresponde a Bitcoin. Por encima del 55%, el capital del mercado está concentrado en BTC y las altcoins no han capturado rotación aún. Históricamente, cuando baja del 52%, ha coincidido con el inicio del "alt season". Es un patrón histórico observable. No garantiza que ocurrirá así.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
BTC Dominance
56.2%
BTC dominant. Capital concentrated in Bitcoin — serious accumulation phase, not altcoin speculation.
🏛️
MACRO
Central Bank Liquidity
What is the Fed Balance Sheet?The total assets held by the Federal Reserve — proxy for US central bank liquidity. QE historically coincides with risk-asset rallies; QT compresses valuations. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Fed Balance Sheet (FRED)
—
Fed in QT mode — reducing balance sheet. Less liquidity injected into the system.
🔒
Confluence Layer — 40+ Proprietary Signals
The confluence layer combines 6 market profiles with 40+ proprietary signals. Results are published weekly via newsletter and Telegram.
01 · LIQUIDITY
M2 Momentum Oscillator
MACRO LAYER
Tracks the rate of change of global M2. A decelerating M2 weakens the signal even when absolute levels are high.
02 · CAPITULATION
Holder Exhaustion Score
ON-CHAIN LAYER
Composite of aSOPR, LTH-SOPR and Realized Loss Ratio. Historically the most reliable bottom signal.
03 · SENTIMENT
Capitulation Duration Index
SENTIMENT LAYER
Consecutive days of Extreme Fear correlated with recovery magnitude. Longer streaks → larger rebounds.
04 · STRUCTURE
Cycle Position Estimator
MACRO + ON-CHAIN
Maps current conditions against 5 historical cycles. Identifies which halving phase matches current readings.
Altcoin Intelligence
When do altcoins run?
The NHCI signals BTC first. Altcoins follow 30–60 days later, always in the same historical sequence.
ALTSEASON INDEX
34
BTC Season active · Alts haven't run yet
BTC SeasonAlt Season
ETH / BTC RATIO
0.030
Trigger for Alt Season: DOM below 52% + ETH/BTC above 0.050. Currently at 0.030 — alts structurally undervalued.
HISTORICAL ROTATION SEQUENCE
Every bull cycle since 2015 followed this exact capital rotation order:
₿ BTC
First move
→
Ξ ETH
+30–60d lag
→
L1 Alts
SOL · BNB · AVAX
→
DeFi
Blue chips
→
Mid Caps
Higher risk
→
Small Caps
Last to run
DOES THE NHCI APPLY TO ALTCOINS?
Partially. The macro layer (M2, VIX) and sentiment layer apply to the entire crypto market. However, on-chain metrics like MVRV and aSOPR are Bitcoin-specific. The NHCI is the leading indicator. The Alt Score and ETH/BTC ratio confirm that rotation has started.
Our story
We've been on both sides.
We know what it feels like to watch a portfolio go from life-changing to almost zero — not because of bad luck, but because the signals were there and we couldn't read them. NeverHodl is the tool we needed back then.
Luis Fraga
Co-founder · CEO
Co-founder of NeverHodl™. Built to give retail investors the same market intelligence that institutional players have. The market is complex. The signals shouldn't be.
Aleff
Co-founder · Global Data Insights & Strategy Lead
Digital transformation expert with a background in CX and product strategy. Aleff brings the systems thinking that turns raw data into something retail investors can actually act on. Because data without clarity is just noise.
Retail investors don't need more content. They need better signals.
NeverHodl was built to be the Bloomberg terminal for the rest of us — without the $24,000/year subscription. Real data, clear language, for every investor in the world regardless of experience, language or location.
FAQ
Common questions answered.
Yes. The BTC NHCI score, all 13 live indicators and real-time dashboard are completely free during Beta. No credit card required. A Pro tier with advanced indicators (Day Trader, multi-asset alerts) is coming soon — the core cycle intelligence will always have a free version.
No. NeverHodl was built specifically for retail investors who don't follow the market daily. One score. Five phases. No charts, no jargon, no noise. The BTC NHCI tells you exactly where the Bitcoin cycle stands — accumulation, active bull, or time to reduce exposure. No prior knowledge needed.
No. NeverHodl is a market cycle intelligence platform — we aggregate on-chain, macroeconomic and sentiment data into a single actionable score. We do not tell you what to buy or sell. You use the cycle context to make your own informed decisions. Educational data only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
The BTC NHCI score updates automatically in near real-time as new market data arrives. BTC price, Fear & Greed and sentiment indicators refresh every few minutes from multiple API sources. On-chain indicators (MVRV, NUPL, aSOPR) update once per day as blockchain data is confirmed. The weekly Telegram signal every Monday summarises the current phase for subscribers who prefer a digest format.
No. Nothing on NeverHodl constitutes financial advice, investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. The BTC NHCI is an educational data aggregation tool that identifies historical cycle patterns. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Crypto assets are highly volatile and can lose all their value. All investment decisions are your sole responsibility. DYOR.
The live BTC NHCI score is always available on this page and in the free dashboard at neverhodl.com/dashboard. For the weekly Monday summary, join the Telegram channel @NeverHodlHQ. Subscribe to the newsletter below to receive the signal directly in your inbox. Zone-change alerts and key level notifications are coming to the Pro tier.
The BTC NHCI aggregates 13 indicators across three layers: on-chain data (MVRV Ratio, NUPL, aSOPR), macroeconomic data (M2 Global, ETF flows, VIX) and market sentiment (Fear & Greed, BTC Dominance). Each indicator is weighted according to its historical predictive relevance in previous Bitcoin cycles. The exact methodology is proprietary to protect the integrity of the signal.
The Fear & Greed Index measures short-term market sentiment — it can swing from 10 to 80 in 48 hours. The BTC NHCI is a macro cycle indicator combining 13 indicators across on-chain fundamentals, macroeconomics and sentiment, designed to identify multi-month cycle phases. Think of Fear & Greed as the daily weather report. The BTC NHCI is the climate map.
Yes. Market data (BTC price, Fear & Greed, BTC Dominance) is collected every few minutes from multiple API sources and the BTC NHCI score recalculates automatically. On-chain indicators (MVRV, NUPL, aSOPR) update once per day as blockchain confirmations are processed. The timestamp of the last update is shown on the live dashboard.
Never. NeverHodl does not sell, share or monetize user data under any circumstance. Your email is used exclusively to send the weekly BTC NHCI signal. Unsubscribe at any time with one click. NeverHodl complies with GDPR (EU Regulation 2016/679) and LOPDGDD (Spain). See our Privacy Policy for full details.
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