What is the MVRV Ratio?
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. Market Value is Bitcoin's current market cap — price times circulating supply. Realized Value is calculated by pricing each bitcoin at the last price it moved on-chain, then summing all of them. The ratio between the two tells you whether the market is overvalued or undervalued relative to what holders actually paid.
When MVRV is above 3.5, the average holder is sitting on more than 250% profit — historically a distribution zone. When MVRV drops below 1, the market is trading below what holders paid on average — historically a floor zone. The BTC NHCI Score tracks MVRV Z-Score continuously as one of its 13 indicators.
What MVRV has signalled historically
In every Bitcoin cycle since 2012, MVRV crossing above 3.5 has preceded a major correction within weeks. In November 2021, MVRV reached 3.8 before Bitcoin dropped 75% over the following year. In December 2018, MVRV hit 0.7 — the lowest reading ever — marking what became the absolute cycle bottom.
The current MVRV Z-Score of — places the market in the Accumulation zone of the NHCI framework — above the panic floor, but well below historical distribution territory.
The 4 MVRV zones you need to know
Market trading below realized value. Every prior instance has marked a cycle bottom.
Moderate profitability. Smart money historically builds positions here.
◂ Current zoneRising unrealized profits. Momentum confirmed but risk increasing.
Extreme unrealized profits. Every prior instance led to major correction.
The current MVRV Z-Score (—) places the market in the Accumulation zone — above the panic floor, well below distribution territory. The BTC NHCI Score combines MVRV with 12 other indicators for a complete cycle reading.
See full BTC NHCI analysis →How MVRV fits into the NHCI Score
The NHCI Score uses MVRV Z-Score — a normalized version that adjusts for Bitcoin's growth over time — as one of its primary on-chain anchors. It carries significant weight in the model because of its historical accuracy across all 4 complete cycles.
However, MVRV alone is not enough. A single indicator can give false signals during unusual market conditions. The NHCI combines MVRV with 12 other indicators — including NUPL, aSOPR, Exchange Flow, and macro signals — to produce a more robust reading. The current BTC NHCI Score (v3.1) reflects all 13 inputs simultaneously.
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Key takeaways
- MVRV compares market cap to realized cap
- Below 1: historically a cycle floor
- Above 3.5: historically a distribution zone
- Current MVRV Z-Score: — (Accumulation zone)
- The NHCI Score uses MVRV as one of 13 indicators