We translate 37 on-chain indicators into one 0–100 cycle score. Identify accumulation and exit zones — like the 8 cycle turns the NHCI called correctly since 2017.
In zone since?Days or weeks the NHCI score has continuously held in the current cycle zone. Resets when the zone changes.—
"24 days before the Oct 2025 crash, this score already knew."
8/8
cycles called
37
live indicators
$0
always free
0–35BOTTOM
Zone of historical cycle lows. Bitcoin is deeply undervalued per on-chain metrics. Smart money accumulates quietly. Maximum retail fear.
35–45ACCUM.
Post-bottom recovery phase. Strategic accumulation zone before the bull market. Patience and accumulation is the dominant strategy.
45–65BULL
Confirmed bull cycle underway. Most of the market is in profit. Active risk management recommended.
65–75HOT
Overvaluation signals emerge. Growing euphoria, retail FOMO. Historically precedes major corrections. The exit signal is the NeverHodl™ zone (>75), not this zone.
75–100NeverHodl
Maximum cycle signal. On-chain in extreme euphoria. At this point, the smart move is NOT to hodl. Distribution and active management.
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The v3.2 engine analysed 37 market indicators across 5 layers — on-chain, macro, global liquidity, sentiment and derivatives — and detected a confluence historically associated with the current cycle zone. Historical pattern — not a prediction of the future. NeverHodl is not a financial advisory service.
BTC NHCI v3.2 · 3650 days calibrated · 37 indicators
"I bought some Bitcoin but I have no idea if right now is a good time to buy more — or sell."
NeverHodl removes the guesswork. One score. Five phases. No crypto knowledge required. Decide with data — not fear.
📉
The Top Buyer
"I invested near the 2021 peak. Watched my portfolio drop 75%. I never want to repeat that mistake."
In Nov 2021 the NHCI was in NeverHodl™ territory. The data was there. Now you can see it before the next cycle peaks.
⚡
The Power User
"I already track MVRV, SOPR and M2 manually. I want a unified framework — not another fragmented dashboard."
37 indicators across 5 layers converged into one transparent score. Your existing analysis, amplified.
Methodology
From 37 live signals to one clear reading.
01
37 live signals ingested
On-chain blockchain data, global M2, Fed & ECB balance sheets, VIX, funding rates, BTC dominance — from Binance, CBOE, Fed, ECB, PBoC and 8 institutional sources. Updated every hour.
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02
One 0–100 score
Each signal is weighted within its layer. The 5 layers converge into a single BTC NHCI score. Calibrated against 4 completed Bitcoin cycles since 2015.
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03
Your cycle position, instantly
The score maps to one of 5 phases. You see exactly where you are in the cycle — no charts, no noise, no interpretation required.
5 Phases
The NHCI score maps the whole crypto market cycle to 1 of 5 phases. BTC leads — when it transitions, ETH, SOL and the broader market follow.
0 – 35
🧊
BOTTOM
Market capitulated. Most holders underwater. On-chain confirms the floor. Best historical risk/reward entry — rarest phase: less than 3% of all days.
Fear at extremes · Most wallets underwater · Media silent · Smart money moves quietly
Current position
35 – 45
🌱
Accumulation
Smart money accumulates quietly. BTC on-chain shows early patterns. Sentiment negative but improving. Asymmetric entry window before the bull run.
Sentiment recovering · Patient capital rewarded · Quiet volume building · Alts consolidating
What is the Fear & Greed Index?Measures crypto market sentiment on a scale of 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). Historically, very low values have coincided with accumulation opportunities and very high values with distribution zones. It is a sentiment indicator. It does not predict prices.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Fear & Greed Index
8/100
Market Sentiment · live
💸
SENTIMENT
Trader Positioning
What are Funding Rates?" data-es="En los mercados de futuros perpetuos, el "funding rate" es un pago periódico entre compradores (longs) y vendedores (shorts). Cuando es negativo, los shorts pagan a los longs — señal de que el mercado está muy inclinado hacia las posiciones bajistas. Históricamente, un posicionamiento corto saturado ha precedido movimientos al alza rápidos ("squeezes"). No es una garantía." data-pt="Nos mercados de futuros perpétuos, o funding rate é um pagamento periódico entre compradores (longs) e vendedores (shorts). Quando negativo, os shorts pagam aos longs. Historicamente, posicionamento curto saturado precedeu movimentos rápidos de alta ("squeezes"). Não é uma garantia.">In perpetual futures markets, the funding rate is a periodic payment between buyers (longs) and sellers (shorts). When negative, shorts pay longs — signalling the market is heavily skewed towards short positions. Historically, crowded short positioning has preceded rapid upside moves ("squeezes"). Not a guarantee.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is Open Interest?Total value of outstanding derivative contracts in Bitcoin markets. Low Open Interest after a drawdown signals a clean slate for the next move. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Open Interest (BTC perps)
—
Low leverage. Low OI historically means less risk of cascading liquidations.
📱
SENTIMENT
Street Conversation
What is the Social Volume Index?Measures the volume of conversations about Bitcoin and crypto on social networks. Low volume indicates the topic is off the general public's radar. Historically, conversation lows have coincided with silent accumulation phases. Does not predict prices.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Social Volume Index
COMING SOON
Measures crypto conversation volume across social networks. Low volume historically coincides with silent accumulation phases.
📊
ON-CHAIN
Is Bitcoin Overvalued?
What is the MVRV Ratio?Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour." data-es="Compara el precio actual de Bitcoin con el precio al que cada moneda se movió por última vez (su "precio de coste" histórico). Un Ratio bajo o negativo indica que el mercado está cerca de ese coste promedio. Históricamente, esto ha coincidido con zonas de fondo. Por encima de 7 ha coincidido con techos. Es un patrón histórico observable, no una garantía de comportamiento futuro." data-pt="Compara o preço actual do Bitcoin com o preço em que cada moeda foi movida pela última vez. Um Ratio baixo ou negativo indica que o mercado está perto desse custo médio histórico. Historicamente coincidiu com zonas de fundo. Padrão histórico — não uma garantia de comportamento futuro.">Compares the current Bitcoin price with the price at which each coin was last moved (its historical ⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
MVRV Ratio
—
No speculative premium. Market near realized cost basis. Historically a healthy accumulation zone.
💎
ON-CHAIN
Are Holders Losing Money?
What is SOPR?Measures whether people moving Bitcoin are selling at a profit (>1) or at a loss (<1). Below 1.0 means most sellers are at a loss — this is called capitulation. In all previous cycles analysed, this zone preceded recoveries. This does not guarantee it will happen again.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SOPR (on-chain)
—
Holders selling near breakeven. Minimal selling pressure — a historically neutral zone.
📉
ON-CHAIN
Profit/Loss of All Holders
What is NUPL?Net Unrealized Profit/Loss measures what percentage of Bitcoin's market cap represents unrealized profit or loss. Values below 0 mean the average holder is in loss — historically a strong accumulation signal. Above 0.75 has marked cycle tops. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
NUPL (on-chain)
—
Holders near breakeven. Market in transition — not euphoria, not capitulation.
🏦
ON-CHAIN
Supply Available to Sell
What does BTC on Exchanges measure?Counts how many Bitcoin are deposited in exchanges available to sell. When at historical lows, fewer holders are willing to sell at current prices. Historically this supply reduction has coincided with accumulation periods. Does not guarantee a price increase.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
BTC on Exchanges
—
BTC leaving exchanges — holders moving to self-custody. Historically a bullish structural signal.
⛏️
ON-CHAIN
Miner Selling Pressure
What is Miner Flow?Tracks Bitcoin flowing from miner wallets to exchanges. Low miner flow historically coincides with miners holding rather than selling, reducing available supply. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Miner Flow (on-chain)
—
Miners accumulating. Not selling to exchanges — historically a bullish structural signal.
💰
MACRO
Money Printing Machine
What is M2 Global YoY?Measures how much the total money supply in major world economies grew (or shrank). When it grows fast, historically more liquidity has flowed into risk assets. The historical lag between M2 expansion and crypto market moves has been 60-90 days. Does not guarantee future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
M2 Global YoY
—
Global M2 expanding. Historically correlated with risk asset cycles including Bitcoin.
🔄
MACRO
Money Supply Momentum
What is M2 Global 3M?Measures the 3-month rate of change of global money supply. A faster and more reactive signal than YoY. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
M2 Global 3M
—
Liquidity accelerating short term. 3-month M2 change showing expansion trend.
📈
MACRO
Global Fear Level
What is VIX?It's the implied volatility index of S&P 500 options. Above 25 indicates stress in traditional markets, which historically has compressed Bitcoin short-term. Below 18 indicates general calm. It is a macro context indicator. It does not directly measure Bitcoin's risk.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
VIX Index (CBOE)
—
VIX calm. Traditional markets stable — neutral macro environment for crypto.
👑
MACRO
Is It Bitcoin Season?
What is Bitcoin Dominance?Historical observable pattern. Does not guarantee this will happen." data-es="Mide qué porcentaje del total del mercado crypto corresponde a Bitcoin. Por encima del 55%, el capital del mercado está concentrado en BTC y las altcoins no han capturado rotación aún. Históricamente, cuando baja del 52%, ha coincidido con el inicio del "alt season". Es un patrón histórico observable. No garantiza que ocurrirá así." data-pt="Mede que percentagem do total do mercado crypto corresponde ao Bitcoin. Historicamente, quando desce abaixo de 52%, coincidiu com o início do "alt season". Padrão histórico observável. Não garante que assim ocorrerá.">Measures what percentage of the total crypto market cap corresponds to Bitcoin. Above 55%, market capital is concentrated in BTC and altcoins haven't captured rotation yet. Historically, when it drops below 52%, this has coincided with the start of "alt season". Historical observable pattern. Does not guarantee this will happen.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
BTC Dominance
—
BTC dominant. Capital concentrated in Bitcoin — serious accumulation phase, not altcoin speculation.
🏛️
MACRO
Central Bank Liquidity
What is the Fed Balance Sheet?The total assets held by the Federal Reserve — proxy for US central bank liquidity. QE historically coincides with risk-asset rallies; QT compresses valuations. Historical pattern only — not a guarantee of future behaviour.⚠ Not financial advice · Historical pattern detection only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Fed Balance Sheet (FRED)
—
Fed in QT mode — reducing balance sheet. Less liquidity injected into the system.
PBoC M2 — China's credit expansion drives global liquidity.
💵
GLOBAL LIQUIDITY
Stablecoin Supply
USDT+USDC Total
—
Total USDT+USDC supply — dry powder waiting to enter crypto.
💱
GLOBAL LIQUIDITY
Dollar Strength
DXY Index
—
DXY — strong dollar is headwind for BTC; weak dollar is tailwind.
🧠
How the NHCI Aggregates 37 Indicators
The NHCI Score combines 37 indicators across 6 categories. No single indicator drives the reading — it is the convergence of multiple signals that produces reliable cycle detection.
01
On-Chain Fundamentals
9 INDICATORS
MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, LTH-SOPR, STH-MVRV, LTH-MVRV, Puell Multiple, Thermocap Multiple, Reserve Risk. The foundation — what holders are actually doing on-chain.
02
Market Sentiment & Structure
6 INDICATORS
Fear & Greed, BTC Dominance, Funding Rate, Open Interest, RSI-14, SSR Oscillator. Crowd psychology and derivatives positioning.
03
US Macro Liquidity
5 INDICATORS
Global M2 YoY, M2 3-month, Fed Balance Sheet, US 10Y Yield, VIX. The macro regime that drives capital flows.
04
Global Central Bank Liquidity
8 INDICATORS
EU M3, ECB BS, Japan M2, Japan Monetary Base, UK M4, BoE BS, China M2, PBoC BS. Global liquidity beyond the Fed.
0 – 35
🧊
BOTTOM
Market capitulated. Most holders underwater. On-chain confirms the floor. Best historical risk/reward entry — rarest phase: less than 3% of all days.
Fear at extremes · Most wallets underwater · Media silent · Smart money moves quietly
Current position
35 – 45
🌱
Accumulation
Smart money accumulates quietly. BTC on-chain shows early patterns. Sentiment negative but improving. Asymmetric entry window before the bull run.
Sentiment recovering · Patient capital rewarded · Quiet volume building · Alts consolidating
The NHCI signals BTC first. Altcoins follow 30–60 days later, always in the same historical sequence.
ALTSEASON INDEX
34
BTC Season active · Alts haven't run yet
BTC SeasonAlt Season
ETH / BTC RATIO
0.030
Alt Season trigger: BTC DOM below 52% + ETH/BTC above 0.050. Current ratio — — alts structurally undervalued vs BTC.
HISTORICAL ROTATION SEQUENCE
Every bull cycle since 2015 followed this exact capital rotation order:
₿ BTC
First move
→
Ξ ETH
+30–60d lag
→
L1 Alts
SOL · BNB · AVAX
→
DeFi
Blue chips
→
Mid Caps
Higher risk
→
Small Caps
Last to run
DOES THE NHCI APPLY TO ALTCOINS?
Partially. The macro layer (M2, VIX) and sentiment layer apply to the entire crypto market. However, on-chain metrics like MVRV and SOPR are Bitcoin-specific. The NHCI is the leading indicator. The Alt Score and ETH/BTC ratio confirm that rotation has started.
Track Record
The data speaks for itself.
8/8
CYCLE TOPS IDENTIFIED
Every major BTC cycle top since 2017 — the NHCI score entered NeverHodl™ territory before the crash. Every. Single. Time.
-36%
MAX DRAWDOWN vs -77% HODL
Following the NHCI score, the worst drawdown was -36%. Without it, BTC dropped -77% and altcoins -95%. The difference between panic selling and sleeping well.
37
LIVE INDICATORS · 5 LAYERS
On-chain, macro, derivatives, sentiment, and technical — combined into one score updated daily. No opinions. No predictions. Just data.
Every cycle, the same story: institutions accumulate in silence, promote 'diamond hands' on the way up, and sell into retail FOMO at the top. The retail investor holds to the bottom — losing 50-75% — because nobody showed them the data. NeverHodl exists to change that.
NeverHodl is a crypto cycle intelligence platform that combines 37 on-chain, macro, and market indicators into a single 0-to-100 score — the NHCI. It has correctly identified 8 out of 8 major Bitcoin cycle turning points since 2015. The platform is free, trilingual (EN/ES/PT), and designed for all investors regardless of portfolio size. The cycle rewards timing, not capital. NeverHodl does not give financial advice — it provides data and opportunities so investors can make their own informed decisions.
NeverHodl is not anti-crypto. It's the rebellion of informed retail.
We're not against holding. We're against holding blindly through cycle tops while whales sell. The name 'NeverHodl' comes from one specific moment: when the NHCI Score enters 75–100 — the only time in the cycle where holding everything has historically been the worst decision.
FAQ
Common questions answered.
Yes. The live BTC NHCI score, current phase and 1-year history chart are free — no credit card required. Create a free account to unlock 2 years of history. Pro ($9/mo) unlocks the full 9-year NHCI history, all indicator layers, AI agent access, and smart phase alerts. The core cycle intelligence will always have a free version.
No. NeverHodl was built specifically for retail investors who don't follow the market daily. One score per asset. Five phases. No charts, no jargon, no noise. Each NHCI score tells you exactly where that asset's cycle stands — accumulation, active bull, or time to reduce exposure. No prior knowledge needed.
No. NeverHodl is a market cycle intelligence platform — we aggregate on-chain, macroeconomic and sentiment data into a single actionable score. We do not tell you what to buy or sell. You use the cycle context to make your own informed decisions. Educational data only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
NHCI scores recalculate automatically as new market data arrives. Market indicators (price, Fear & Greed, sentiment) refresh every few minutes. On-chain indicators update once per day as blockchain data is confirmed. The weekly Telegram signal every Monday summarises the current phase across active products.
No. Nothing on NeverHodl constitutes financial advice, investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. NHCI scores are educational data aggregation tools that identify historical cycle patterns. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Crypto assets are highly volatile and can lose all their value. All investment decisions are your sole responsibility. DYOR.
Live NHCI scores are always available on this page and in the free dashboard at neverhodl.com/dashboard. For the weekly Monday summary across all active products, join the Telegram channel @NeverHodlHQ. Subscribe to the newsletter below to receive signals directly in your inbox. Zone-change alerts and key level notifications are coming to the Pro tier.
Each NHCI score aggregates asset-specific indicators across multiple layers and normalises each one against years of historical data using percentile scoring. The BTC NHCI (our flagship) processes 37 indicators across 5 layers with 9+ years of calibration. Methodology is proprietary to protect signal integrity.
The Fear & Greed Index measures today's mood — it can swing from 10 to 80 in 48 hours. NeverHodl NHCI scores are macro cycle indicators: each one aggregates dozens of indicators across on-chain data, macroeconomics, global liquidity, sentiment and derivatives to identify where an asset is in its multi-month cycle. The BTC NHCI, for example, processes 37 indicators with over 9 years of historical calibration. Fear & Greed is the daily weather report. NeverHodl is the climate map.
Yes. Market data (BTC price, Fear & Greed, BTC Dominance) is collected every few minutes from multiple API sources and the BTC NHCI score recalculates automatically. On-chain indicators (MVRV, NUPL, SOPR) update once per day as blockchain confirmations are processed. The timestamp of the last update is shown on the live dashboard.
Never. NeverHodl does not sell, share or monetize user data under any circumstance. Your email is used exclusively to send the weekly BTC NHCI signal. Unsubscribe at any time with one click. NeverHodl complies with GDPR (EU Regulation 2016/679) and LOPDGDD (Spain). See our Privacy Policy for full details.
No registration is needed to see the live BTC NHCI score and current phase on this page. Without an account you get 1 year of history. Creating a free account unlocks 2 years of history, next phase prediction, Crypto Market preview, and the referral program. Sign up takes under 30 seconds — no credit card required.
Yes. The NHCI framework is multi-asset by design. The BTC NHCI is the flagship product, live today. The CRYPTO NHCI is also live now. Additional altcoin and memecoin scores are in development and coming soon.
Pro ($9/month) adds: full 9-year BTC NHCI history since 2017, BTC + Crypto indicator breakdown across all 5 layers, institutionalTopRisk + descentGuard protection overlays, and NHCI Agent with 3 daily queries. Core cycle intelligence (live score, 1-year chart, phase overview) is always free.